China's next ten years, the new wind power capacity will account for nearly half of the new share of the world

As the world's first wind power in China, the wind power market in the next ten years will continue to maintain strong growth momentum, the new grid capacity and lifting capacity will be significantly increased.

In June 28th, the International Wind Energy Research Institute MAKE released the "2016 China wind power market outlook report" (hereinafter referred to as the "report"). The report is expected during 2016 -2025, China new grid capacity will reach 263GW, accounting for 43% of the world's new grid capacity; lifting capacity is expected in the next ten years to maintain an average annual increase of 25.5GW, in 2025 reached total lifting capacity of 393.7GW.

"Report" is expected in 2016 China's new wind power capacity will be reduced by 23% year on year. The main reason is that a large number of parts and hoisting in construction projects have been included in the planning and Design Institute of water conservancy and hydropower (hereinafter referred to as the water gauge) among the grid data of 2015.

Also affected by the 2014 -2015 year grab loaded, in 2016 the new lifting capacity will also decline, down 8%. In 2016, second times in 2018 after the full implementation of the tariff, in 2019 -2021 years of wind power new lifting capacity, compared to 2016 -2018 years, there is a certain decline.

"But with the release of good wind power policy and the promotion of power grid investment, the new grid capacity will be steady in 2016 after the rise, and in 2018 more than the new lifting capacity. "The report says.

MAKE pointed out that China wind power market into the adjustment period in 2016, south the focus of the market in the short term, but the focus of development or later will return to the North area.

The report said that the first round of tariff reduction was fully implemented in January 1, 2016, the average wind one or two, three wind zone power project revenue rate fell sharply, but without the influence of the new price part of the four types of wind area more attractive. And the recent introduction of the wind power construction program also stressed the importance of wind power development in the area to speed up the development of low wind speed.

"Therefore, in 2016 and 2017 the new equipment will be transferred to the four type of wind area, and the four types of wind areas of the new installed capacity will be increased to nearly 50% from the previous year's 25%-35%. "The report says.

But considering the second tariff reduction relates to all wind areas, wind resources and wind four regions, the average rate of return projects will therefore fall below 5%, thus losing the attractiveness of investment. The phenomenon of abandoned wind power rationing in north area after three years of market adjustment, and power grid construction investment will be eased. Therefore, the report pointed out that the focus of development or will return to the north.

For China offshore wind power market, the report is expected in 2020 before the development is still slow, the reason is the lack of offshore wind power development experience, the relative onshore wind power development of high cost and risk.

At present, the capital expenditure of offshore wind power projects (CAPEX) is more than two times of onshore wind power projects. The report said that Chinese wind turbine manufacturers tried to reduce costs through parts localization of high cost, but the quality and reliability of wind turbine for developers to reduce development risks is crucial, especially in the offshore wind farm operation and maintenance cost is much higher than the case of onshore. Taking into account the poor quality, low reliability of the wind turbine to bring the risk of the project is greater, the developer of the offshore wind turbine price sensitivity is much lower than onshore wind power.

At the same time, the wind turbine lifting, foundation construction and installation and laying of submarine cable also account for a large part of offshore wind power project capital expenditures. Therefore, the limited offshore wind power development technology and development experience has become one of the biggest obstacles to the development of China's offshore wind power.

Previously, the national energy board for China's offshore wind power installed target is to reach 30GW in 2020. And the report is expected in 2020 10GW cumulative net goal, for the domestic industry is still a difficult target.

The abandoned wind brownouts has been facing Chinese wind power industry, the most headache problem. The report said that due to the fierce competition in all kinds of power supply, this problem will become increasingly fierce.

2015 electricity consumption growth rate of only 0.5%, down 3.3 percentage points, but the power generation installed capacity to maintain a relatively rapid growth, the power installed capacity of a serious surplus.

"The report" pointed out that the profitability of thermal power projects much stronger than wind power projects, taking into account the Power Grid Corp will pay all the electricity price, thermal power in terms of cash flow is more advantageous. Limited power grid capacity and local government's biased support for thermal power, resulting in a very limited and stagnant electricity consumer market in the face of a generation of renewable energy.

Under such circumstances, the minimum protection of the acquisition of hours of policy or the number of hours will be difficult to achieve. In May, the National Energy Bureau, the national development and Reform Commission jointly issued the "on wind power, photovoltaic power generation full protection of the acquisition and management of the notice", approved some abandoned wind, abandoned light problem areas within the planning of wind power, photovoltaic power generation and acquisition of guaranteed minimum annual utilization hours.

The report pointed out that the three north region severely limit the impact of the abandoned wind provinces, such as Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Gansu, Jilin and Heilongjiang, because of the serious excess supply in the short term, or will not be able to complete a minimum number of hours of the protection of the acquisition target. Wind power and wind power projects using the number of hours more than the minimum number of security, is likely to be limited.